A few years ago, I wrote about Bazball, the radical English cricketing approach that had led to victory after victory. It was about to face its greatest test - an Ashes series against the old enemy, Australia, who also happened to be the newly crowned World Test Champions.

The result was a drawn series - the previously unstoppable Bazball machine didn’t wilt, but nor was it able to consistently dominate. Australia retained the Ashes, and England vowed to regroup and prepare for a successful Australian campaign. Well, now they’re here on Australian soil, with the first Test starting tomorrow.

Recapping

Coming into the last Ashes series, England had had 11 wins and only two losses since the start of the Bazball revolution. They’d also taken some frankly astonishing wins at home against NZ and India (not that it’s astonishing for England to win at home, of course, but it was the way they won that caught attention). Then they clean-swept Pakistan in an away series. There was a narrow loss to NZ in NZ, but that didn’t really take the shine off the philosophy.

The Ashes series itself was drawn 2 - 2. In the lead up, I’d said that it felt like a 2 - 2 draw would be a fair result. On paper, Australia had the stronger side and were about the best equipped to face Bazball, but England had home advantage and hadn’t lost an Ashes series at home for more than twenty years.

There were, I’m sure, moments both sides could point to and say “We were robbed”. For England, the most notable was a drawn Test due to weather when they were very much ahead (that was also perhaps the most stereotypically “Bazball” Test, with England scoring 592 in the first innings at nearly a run a ball). On the Australian side there was a controversial ball change in the final Test just as they seemed on top of the chase. It still feels to me like 2 - 2 was a fair result, though definitely disappointing as an Australian fan after they’d been 2 - 0 up with three to play.

For Australia, I predicted that the loss of Nathan Lyon to injury would be a big deal, and so it proved. I suspect if he’d been playing the Third Test, Australia would have won it and taken the series outright.

But that’s just life. That Test, Australia were weakened by the loss of a key bowler, but strengthened by a change in the batting. England, on the other hand, regrouped after a couple of losses, and brought in new bowlers who made a big difference. And they were then rewarded with a couple of wins.

In other circumstances, perhaps England could have won 3 - 2. Or perhaps Australia could have won 3 - 1. As it was, the 2 - 2 result didn’t kill Bazball, but nor did it do a lot to burnish its reputation - moral victories aside.

What’s come since?

Last Ashes series was at the start of a World Test Championship cycle, and so the two teams ended up sharing points. In the rest of the cycle the two teams took very different paths.

Australia won another 11 games while losing only two, made it to a second consecutive WTC Final, and then lost to top-ranked South Africa.

England won another nine games but lost eight, and ended up fifth on the WTC Table (that’s right - Bazball as a philosophy had gone from nearly unbeatable to losing almost as many as they won).

The biggest contributor to the “loss” column was a 4 - 1 series loss to India in India, which I get - India at home is a tough proposition. But they also lost 2 - 1 to Pakistan in Pakistan, which was surprising after winning the first Test with a display even more dominant than their previous whitewash of Pakistan.

Australia kicked off the current WTC cycle with a 3 - 0 defeat of the West Indies in the West Indies. England were at home to face India, and ended up finishing an engrossing series with another 2 - 2 draw. Their most recent preparation was an ODI series in NZ that they lost badly (they will of course insist that it’s a different format and a different team facing different conditions, but it’s hardly the outcome they would have wanted).

Rankings watch

I don’t think rankings necessarily predict which teams or players will do best in the future. But it’s fun looking at the numbers 🙂.

In terms of team rankings, Australia are #1 in the world, while England are #2 (don’t know how they managed that while being fifth in the last WTC cycle, but never mind…).

With the bat, it’s now England who have the edge: In Joe Root and Harry Brook they have the top 2 players, with Ben Duckett also coming in at #9. In the lead-up to the last Ashes it was Brook who looked the biggest threat, and I think he still does. But Root is back to his world-beating ways, while also scoring faster than ever before. He hasn’t done as well in Australia in the past, but if he can change that - watch out!

Australia have Steve Smith and Travis Head in the top 10. Smith has returned to form in the last year after a bit of a dip, while Head is probably the most “Bazball” of Australia’s batters and has a proven record of match-winning innings.

I also find it interesting that the two keepers are at #18 and #19 in the batting rankings. Both have put in some great performances for their respective teams, and either one of them could sway the series their team’s way.

It’s a different question with the ball. In the top 10 are Australia’s entire first choice bowling attack plus their backup pace bowler. England have Gus Atkinson at #10, and then no-one till the mid-thirties. On paper that should be a decisive difference - but nothing’s so straightforward in real life…

Can England make it work in Australia?

The biggest question mark for England - as indeed for any touring side - is how well they can adjust to Australian conditions. Australia have had a lot of practice winning in Australia, and the current team is no exception. England seem to have more practice losing in Australia.

England have been very open about spending the last couple of years preparing for this series in Australia. In particular, they’ve done their best to put together a group of pacy fast bowlers, and, what’s more, have them actually recovered from past injuries and ready to play as needed. Those players might not be high in the rankings - mostly because they haven’t been able to play many Tests - but they all have the ability to change matches. They also have their captain back to bowling long spells after a while of mostly being a specialist batsman.

Not many in their squad were here during their last tour, which might be a good thing - it will at least mean they’re free of the scars of that tour. Conducted in a Covid bubble and with ever-changing Covid protocols, it sounds like most things which could go wrong for them did go wrong.

Win or lose, this time feels different, and England can definitely sense an opportunity. Australia have an ageing team - and in fact will be missing two of their first choice bowlers to injury for the first Test. On paper England have a method and a group of players which can capitalise on that opportunity - but will they?

My prediction

I’ll cut to the chase: To me, a 3 - 1 win to Australia feels like it would be a fair result.

Why? Well, despite being generally stronger at home than away, this English team has drawn series with both Australia and India in the last few years. Australia, on the other hand, last summer managed to recover from a first Test loss to beat India 3 - 1.

Like I said above, Australia have a lot of practice winning in Australia. Even with injuries, they still have a strong bowling attack, and even when not doing so well with the bat they usually seem to find someone to step up.

It’s not hard for me to see England winning a Test. They have both the batting to pile on a daunting total and the bowling to trigger a familiar Australian collapse.

I just find it hard to see England doing better than India last summer, and much harder to see them winning the three Tests they will likely need to win to take the series and reclaim the Ashes.

Very likely both teams will have a few “We were robbed!” moments. Perhaps those moments will balance each other out again, or perhaps they won’t. Still, each team needs to focus on seizing their opportunities when they come and not worry too much about the rest.

I’m not a pundit, just a cricket fan, and I’m making this prediction to show how I see the world, not so I can be proven right. I hope we have a competitive series with a few twists and turns and some great performances from both sides. And yes, then I’d like Australia to win - but I’d also prefer the series to still be live when it comes to Melbourne.

England are to be commended for the preparation they’ve done for this tour. I’m not sure it will be enough, but if they prove me wrong they’ll deserve it.

Will a series loss bury Bazball?

Last time round, like I’ve said, the Ashes felt like the decisive test for Bazball. Back then, Australia didn’t really defeat it, but they did provide a reality check.

I think it’s a bit more nuanced this time round. They’ve been able to replace early key players - like Jonny Bairstow, for example - while still winning. In the process they’ve also shown they’re in it for the long term. Yes, they’ve lost a lot more Tests than they did in that magic first year - but it’s still better than their pre-Bazball record. Similarly, if they do manage to win a match or two this series it will be an improvement on their last few Ashes tours, even if they don’t ultimately win the series.

We’ve known the benefits and drawbacks of attacking play long before Bazball: Yes, it can mean taking risks that don’t come off and look really bad. But it can also put opponents on the back foot, which gives extra opportunities and lets you get away with mistakes. From the point of view of a fan, it can be really entertaining - and also really frustrating.

As a result, most teams have had some attacking players, but it’s much more unusual to do it a team level. When I first heard about it, I thought England were probably taking it too far, and I still do. But I no longer feel the need for other teams - and particularly Australia - to come along and prove it wrong.

Unless things go really, really badly this series, I think we’ll still have a Stokes-led England team filled with attacking players. And that’s probably a good thing.

In conclusion

Hopefully we’re in for a great ride this summer. May the best team win!